Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

What Path Will Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood Choose?

Ashraf El-SherifSeptember 23, 2013Article
 

Note: On September 23, the Cairo Court for Urgent Matters issued a preliminary injunction ordering the shutdown of the Brotherhood. Yet, dissolving or legally banning the group will have only a very partial effect in practice. As long as the Brotherhood maintains its core constituency of supporters, networks, and ideological believers, it can survive intact as a social movement and organization despite its official illegal status as it did for decades under Nasser, Sadat, and Mubarak.

Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood faces a tremendously difficult but crucial choice about what role it will try to play in Egypt’s political future. The organization is reeling from the stunning reversal of power it experienced this summer, when massive popular protests against the serious governance failures of the government led by then president Mohamed Morsi, a senior Brotherhood figure, prompted the Egyptian military to overthrow Morsi and install a caretaker government. Since then, the new authorities have killed more than 1,000 Brotherhood members, brought criminal charges against Morsi, and jailed most of the rest of the Brotherhood’s senior leadership. But despite being under political siege, the Brotherhood remains a significant actor in Egypt. What role it decides to play will have a major impact on Egypt’s still highly uncertain new political path.

Since Morsi was driven from power in July, the Brotherhood has been reluctant to concede defeat. It has staged a series of protests aimed at reinstating the former government, trying to motivate grassroots supporters with messages of defiance while simultaneously sending out more conciliatory messages to the international community. The Brotherhood’s future strategy remains difficult to predict, particularly with the arrest of the organization’s top leaders, which has left the Brotherhood paralyzed and indecisive. A deep-reaching positive transformation of the organization, entailing changes in ideology, tactics, and goals, would be necessary for it to become a full player in what many Egyptians still hope for: a genuinely democratic Egyptian political system.

Yet such a transformation appears unlikely given the current situation. Instead, three alternative scenarios present themselves: accommodation and integration; a turn to sustained, large-scale violence; and continued protest and attempted regime delegitimization. Blunders by the transitional government have muddied the waters and paradoxically helped the Brotherhood even as state security services are coming down so hard on it.

Constraints on a Possible Positive Transformation

An Imagined but Improbable Ideal

Brotherhood policies, discourse, and political tactics since the 2011 uprising that toppled then president Hosni Mubarak have raised serious questions about the organization’s authoritarian leanings and the clear danger these tendencies pose to national identity, unity, security, and democracy. Comprehensive ideological and organizational changes are therefore necessary if the Brotherhood is to play a productive role in a democratic Egyptian future.

An ideal starting point in such a process of change would be for the Brotherhood to acknowledge its poor record of governance, which alienated so much of the country. It could then acknowledge the need for and pursue the separation of politics and proselytizing; organizational and financial restructuring; and a commitment to the national consensus—if there is any—on the value of citizenship, pluralism, and human rights.

Such a positive transformative path would be the best avenue for the Brotherhood to reassume its position as a center-right political actor with the potential to contribute to the consolidation of democracy in Egypt. But the problem is that this ideal scenario assumes the Brotherhood to be exactly what it has so painfully proved itself not to be. Its established solidarity networks in many parts of Egyptian society—predominantly based on religious mobilization, identity politics, and the Brotherhood’s closed, hierarchical organization—have transformed into power-hungry networks. These networks capitalize on religious and social linkages to solicit blind, grassroots support for the leadership in its clashes with those forces it deems enemies of the Brotherhood, the Islamic movement, and the Islamic identity of Egypt. Brotherhood policies pursued while Morsi was in power were forced to conform to the character of these organizational networks and their ideology.

The Brotherhood is not a “moderate” Islamist movement that can be further moderated and democratized via inclusion. Instead, it has shown itself to be an assertive, even reckless movement, invested in Islamist ideology and dominated by an entrenched leadership structure. It has demonstrated a tendency to maintain multiple public discourses in an attempt to reconcile irreconcilable sets of political vocabulary. The soft-spoken English-speaking Brotherhood cadres who communicate with Western diplomats and analysts and propagate lofty statements about the compatibility of Brotherhood objectives with liberal democracy are not exactly representative of the real Muslim Brotherhood.

To truly understand the Brotherhood, one should examine the movement at the grassroots level, in the small towns and rural areas across the Delta and Upper Egypt—the organization’s real power base and the constituency that its leaders represent. At this level, the Brotherhood does not support pro-democracy rhetoric. Instead, it is more aligned with Salafist religious interpretations and understandings of the organization’s mission and goals as expressed by Sayyid Qutb, the renowned Muslim Brotherhood intellectual of the 1950s and early 1960s. Qutb was instrumental in advancing the notion of “organization first,” which suggests that the Islamist cause is inherently connected with the creation and sustenance of the Muslim Brotherhood society as an exclusive representation of Islam.

Intellectually and culturally, the Brotherhood encompasses different schools of Islamic thought, some of which are more open-minded and reformist than others. But based on the Brotherhood’s doctrinal literature and actual behavior, it is clear that the core of the organization centers on an ideology of an “Islamist state,” “Islamic transnationalism,” or “Paxa Islamica” and on notions of a government based on God’s sovereignty instead of the people’s sovereignty.

Members of the Brotherhood are thus not the sort of Middle Eastern version of Christian democrats imagined by some Western political analysts—that is, they are not center-right actors who pursue their religiously rooted social and cultural conservatism within the confines of liberal democracy. To live at all comfortably within such confines, the Brotherhood would have to undertake major changes in its ideology, particularly its notions of national identity, citizenship, religious freedom, gender equality, and popular sovereignty. As long as it remains unwilling and unable to assume this responsibility, it will not morph into the “Islamic democrats” model. Some might argue that time is a key factor here, but wrong beginnings never lead to the right finales, and the Brotherhood’s short-lived tenure in power was full of wrong beginnings.

Pragmatic but Not Moderate

Contemporary Islamists have no clear theory of the state that can be translated into politics (most likely the result of a lack of such a theory in the Islamic tradition). As a result, the Brotherhood’s policies while in power exhibited a certain flexibility and openness to pragmatism, at least on some issues. Examples of pragmatism included the recognition of the peace treaty with Israel after forty years of fierce opposition, the cultivation of working relationships with Western countries despite a history of anti-Western diatribes, and the tendency to neglect the cause of instituting Islamic sharia in government policies and legislation, to the dismay of the other Islamists, most notably the Salafists. For instance, Brotherhood members in the parliament opposed the authority of premier Islamic religious institution al-Azhar in determining the correctness of the new “Sukuk” financial law, describing al-Azhar’s involvement as abhorred “theocracy.”

However, such pragmatism should not be understood as a sign of moderation or open-mindedness on the road to adopting liberal democracy. Confusing pragmatism for moderation is a trap for analysts searching a bit too hard for the Brotherhood’s democratic potential. Members of the Brotherhood might not be the staunchest advocates of the Islamization of society and laws through the application of sharia (unlike the Salafists, for example), but to conclude that they are committed to secular democracy would be a mistake. The Brotherhood is committed to the creation of an Islamic state, understood as the modern state under the authoritarian domination of the Islamist group par excellence—that is, the Muslim Brotherhood society. The Brotherhood selectively adopts references to both Islamic sharia and the values of liberal democracy, most importantly electoral processes, in the pursuit of this ideological objective.

The Brotherhood’s organizational structure also makes it unlikely to adopt a moderate approach. The group is neither a political party nor a social association. Over its eighty-year existence, the Brotherhood has developed into a closed and self-interested hierarchical society organized along Bolshevik-style lines of command and control. The Brotherhood sees itself as a countersociety, entitled to represent the people and lead them into a new world, replacing the existing, modern state with a new one under Brotherhood domination. According to the Qutbist notion of “organization first,” anything is permissible if it is necessary to the Brotherhood and its society.

Under the thirty-year reign of Mubarak, this society fell under the command of a generation of leaders heavily influenced by Qutb’s ideas (this includes the key leaders in the Muslim Brotherhood’s Guidance Bureau, the group’s top decisionmaking authority, and even Morsi himself). Under those leaders, the organization was knit together not only by the bonds of ideology and identity but also through networks of common interests: business and economic ties, personal and familial relationships, and regional loyalties. The Brotherhood developed transnational connections, loyalties, and interests.

These networks are not conducive to the democratization of the Brotherhood. This process would involve not only the democratization of institutional decisionmaking within the group’s authoritative bodies but also the transformation of its internal mechanisms of identification, inference, mobilization, financial machinations, recruitment, promotion, loyalties, and identity formation, which are all designed to form a closed, self-centered social taifa (sect) within Egyptian society.

The organizational character of the Brotherhood, consistent with its ideological blueprint, led it to betray the hopes for democratic national transformation on the part of the Egyptian revolutionaries who rallied en masse to oust Mubarak. At the same time, the Brotherhood alienated the interests of the old regime. Hence, it earned the enmity of both the dreamers of a new, democratic Egypt and the pillars of the old Egypt.

Given these realities of its ideological and organizational character, ideal transformation of the Brotherhood is not a plausible scenario. So what are its options in the current, highly charged, and conflictive political environment? Three possible scenarios present themselves.

The Accommodation Scenario: Compromising for Inclusion and Integration

The first potential scenario would involve an agreement between the Muslim Brotherhood and the interim Egyptian government that would incorporate the organization into the new political process. This would preserve the Brotherhood as a political actor in Egyptian politics and leave its financial assets and social capital relatively intact. For this to happen, the Brotherhood would have to acquiesce to facts that render a return to the status it enjoyed before Morsi’s ouster impossible. It would admit political defeat and call off its protest activities. In return, the government would halt its repression, release Brotherhood prisoners, unfreeze Brotherhood assets, allow for Islamist media to reopen, and halt the cleansing of Brotherhood elements from the civil service and government bureaucracy, particularly from Brotherhood power bases in religious institutions (including the ministry in charge of religious endowments, preachers, and prayer leaders) and in the Ministries of Education, Health, and Interior and Municipalities. The Brotherhood would also be allowed to participate in the political process, including the new parliamentary and presidential elections.

Essential to this scenario would be the Brotherhood’s acceptance of certain key terms of inclusion:

  1. Endorsement of the new political rules of the game, determined by consensus, in which the Brotherhood would not have a veto over major features of a new system—that is, “participation but not hegemony.”
     
  2. Conformity with the redlines concerning tolerance and respect for Egypt’s diverse national identity (one of the key reasons the military intervened during the protests that resulted in Morsi’s fall was a concern about the Brotherhood’s behavior while in power, which was irresponsible, sectarian, and divisive and could have ignited civil strife in the country).
     
  3. More than a cosmetic commitment to the values of liberal democracy, including participatory citizenship, political pluralism, and respect for political and civil rights. This implies considerable changes in the organizational structure of the Brotherhood as well as in the legal and institutional status of its political activities.

The regime might be interested in making such a deal with the Brotherhood. Mass-based movements like the Muslim Brotherhood, with a significant constituency and decades-long existence, cannot be eliminated by sheer force. Governments in most countries faced with insurgent or protest movements enjoying at least some popular base have resolved their issues at the negotiation table. After weeks of violent confrontations, it has become obvious that brute force cannot compel the Brotherhood to surrender.

Moreover, the regime might actively benefit from having the Brotherhood as a player in a newly reconstituted system. The Egyptian state under former presidents Anwar Sadat and Hosni Mubarak was a beneficiary of the Brotherhood’s identity politics, which helpfully overshadowed issues of failed democratization, social justice, and economic development that were awkward for the state. Brotherhood politics—and Islamist politics more broadly—have always been a factor of confusion and division in the opposition, which has helped weaken the state’s opponents. And authoritarian regimes in Egypt were more comfortable with debates over secularization versus Islamization than debates about the democratization of state institutions, civil-military relations, public accountability and transparency, equitable and sustainable economic development, or anticorruption measures.

The Brotherhood also has many regional and international interests that are too complicated to be easily ignored by the regime. And public fear of political Islam has been and always will be useful in attempts to justify authoritarianism. As a result, the regime might be interested in maintaining the political participation of the Brotherhood and Islamists in the future but checking their power and keeping them under control. Political Islam is acceptable, just as long as the Islamists fall in line.

Practical Difficulties

Despite its potential benefits to both sides, the accommodation scenario is still problematic. At this point, the Brotherhood will only strike a deal on the condition that certain prenegotiation confidence-building measures are taken—mainly the release of arrested leaders and the reopening of Islamist television channels. The regime—at least key elements in its security and military institutions—would almost certainly be highly reluctant to offer this pardon. It would at least insist on bringing some of the Brotherhood’s leaders who are responsible for criminal or terrorist acts to justice in order to justify its recent crackdown.

The hidden message here is that if the Brotherhood wants be reintegrated into national politics, it should undertake major leadership changes. Old leaders cannot do business with the military and the state anymore. In addition, the inclusion and reintegration of the Brotherhood might lose popular backing if the pace of violence continues to accelerate, whether in the Sinai Peninsula, a hotbed of Islamist activity that has become more violent of late, or in the rest of Egypt.

No less importantly, whether or not the “moderate” Brotherhood leaders who are capable of initiating negotiations with the regime are actually representative of the organization remains an open question. The media generally identifies two senior Brotherhood leaders as possible interlocutors: Mohamed Ali Beshr and Amr Darrag. In reality, neither enjoys considerable organizational clout. Although Beshr is a member of the Guidance Bureau, he is reportedly a member of the Brotherhood’s “reformist” faction, a group of moderate Muslim Brothers that has failed to garner substantial power within the organization over the last few years. Darrag is not even a member of the Guidance Bureau. His position in the Brotherhood’s main political party, the Freedom and Justice Party, and the appointment he held in Morsi’s now-dissolved cabinet are meaningless when it comes to decisionmaking power within the organization. Darrag himself denies any connections to the group’s decisionmaking bodies, including the Guidance Bureau, Shura Council (the Brotherhood’s parliament), and administrative bureaus. Therefore, whether they are representative enough of the Brotherhood’s organizational mainstream is highly debatable. In addition, internal power wrangling might be another possible explanation of any negotiators’ motives. In other words, it might be more of an internal factional competition in which Brotherhood members are maneuvering to fill the leadership vacuum and less of a sincere initiative to adopt a moderate course and resolve the national crisis.

Furthermore, the notion of making a deal with the regime without fulfilling the Brotherhood’s declared objective of reinstating the “legitimate president” might be political suicide for the group, as it risks breaking the organization’s unity. Brotherhood supporters have been mobilized on the basis of identity and ideology since Morsi issued a series of controversial presidential decrees and constitutional declarations in November 2012 that split the nation. Slogans calling for the reinstatement of the legitimate and democratically elected president are enlisted by the Brotherhood mainly to appeal to international audiences. Much of the domestic propaganda targeting Brotherhood members and the Islamist grassroots emphasizes the religious and ideological character of the political conflict in Egypt in order to boost morale and resonate with the grassroots worldview.

Pro-Morsi demonstrators in a forty-day-long protest in eastern Cairo known as the Rabaa al-Adawiya sit-in frequently used slogans claiming that the regime’s repression is not about the Muslim Brotherhood or Morsi but rather about Islam itself—it is a war against Islam. Not just Brotherhood supporters but the whole Islamist bloc (except for the Salafist al-Nour Party) coalesced around the Brotherhood as a result of existential fears that all Islamists would be excluded. As one religious man who came from the rural Beheira Governorate to participate in the sit-in put it, “I am here at the sit-in because I am afraid that if Morsi is gone, then the new ruler will forbid prayer and force my wife to take off her veil. I also fear that any bearded man will be arbitrarily arrested and rounded up by the regime’s police.”

These fears are arguably justified based on the sensationalist, anti-Islamist diatribes in state and private media in addition to the increasing social and public hostility toward Islamists in the public space, especially in the big cities. Any sudden shift by Brotherhood leaders would immediately tarnish the leadership’s credibility in the eyes of grassroots supporters. Intragroup solidarity remains a high priority for the Brotherhood, primarily because of its methods of organization and its ideology.

Institutional Resistance to Change

Assuming there are prudent, democratic interlocutors who are truly interested in mediating a settlement with the regime, such as Beshr and Darrag, can they really command the organization’s support? The answer, most likely, is no, given that most of the key positions in the group’s decisionmaking bodies, including the Guidance Bureau, the Shura Council, and administrative units, are occupied by individuals completely loyal to the Brotherhood’s incumbent leadership and tied to it through a multilayered network of business, familial, occupational, personal, and ideological connections.

Furthermore, the Brotherhood’s leadership has masterfully employed existential fears of regime repression among the group’s members to deter any serious call for self-critique or internal revision. Brotherhood leaders have so far adamantly refused to admit their grave mistakes and betrayal of the causes of revolution and democratization. The best they can concede, based on the dovish Darrag’s statement to the media, is to support the viewpoint that the only mistake the Brotherhood made while in power was underestimating the power of the Egyptian “deep state” and its capacity to spoil the political process. Darrag believes that the Brotherhood should have adopted a “more revolutionary strategy” in order to cleanse the state. But he expresses no regrets about the authoritarian constitution, the exclusionary political process, or the divisive policies put in place by the Brotherhood while in power. Moreover, even if Brotherhood leaders admit to grave mistakes during their rule, as long as the regime continues its repressive policies against the organization, the time will not be right to critique these leaders or hold them accountable for their shortcomings and wrong deeds. Therefore, internal Brotherhood fragmentation and secession will remain highly unlikely.

Nevertheless, even if some interlocutors can hypothetically solicit a degree of support—and hence start creating a real moderate faction within the Brotherhood—this scenario presents an invitation for the breakdown of the Brotherhood’s organizational unity. As long as there are no comprehensive transformations of the group’s ideology and mission, the recalcitrant Brotherhood mass will not accept these moderates’ offers of settlement on the regime’s terms, which will be depicted as an unpalatable act of treachery. The Brotherhood might come to a historical end, and more radical groups might emerge to the right of the Brotherhood, attracting its disgruntled former supporters. So, the first scenario, which is the resolution preferred by the United States and the European Union, is highly problematic and unlikely, at least in the short run.

The Violence Scenario: Algeria (or Syria) Redux

Egypt could also descend into full-scale violence or, as analysts like to call it, the “Algerian scenario,” in reference to the decade-long bloody confrontation between the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) and the military regime in Algeria. This conflict erupted after the military staged a coup and canceled the parliamentary election results in 1992, usurping the FIS’s electoral win and banning it from politics altogether. Syria illustrates another version of this scenario: military confrontation between the army and rebels, many of whom are Islamists, leading to the fragmentation of the army along sectarian and ideological lines.

Horrific though it looks to most from the outside, such a path might stir the imagination of some of the more radically inclined members of the Brotherhood, who might view it as their best option in the face of the Egyptian military’s evidently superior capacity for force. This fact explains the Muslim Brotherhood’s rhetoric against the military after Morsi’s ouster. Reportedly, speakers at the Rabaa sit-in recounted baseless stories of defections within the military in protest of Defense Minister General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s decision to overthrow Morsi. Also, Brotherhood media mouthpieces spread many rumors about defections from the Egyptian Third Army in the city of Suez and the house arrests of several army generals unhappy with Sisi’s decisions. One of the stories mentioned the name of General Mohamed al-Assar, a key member of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces that temporarily ruled the country after Mubarak’s fall and the liaison of armament operations in the Egyptian army.

There are some factors pushing Egypt toward the violence scenario. They include the unprecedented political polarization that has divided the country since Morsi’s controversial decisions in November 2012; the apocalyptic, zero-sum-game mentality among Brotherhood leaders; and the resurgence and spread over the last two and a half years of takfiri, Islamist discourse in which one Muslim accuses another of apostasy and calls for excommunication. In addition, the warlike Brotherhood propaganda at the Rabaa sit-in (such as vows of “defending Morsi’s legitimacy over their dead bodies” and other rhetoric of religious zeal) added more fuel to the fire.

It is hard to exaggerate the rage among Islamists that stemmed from regime-perpetrated massacres to disperse pro-Morsi protesters at the Rabaa sit-in and another sit-in at al-Nahda Square on August 14 as well as the subsequent bloody repression of pro-Morsi demonstrations and marches. Those actions vindicated the extremists’ claims that efforts to establish peaceful politics are futile and that the anti-Islamist regime is exclusivist and keen on exterminating the Islamists altogether, a situation that renders violence the only feasible option. Other logistical factors that support the emergence of this violence scenario include the weakening of the Egyptian police since the 2011 uprising that overthrew Mubarak and the spread of weapons smuggled across the Libyan border in the wake of that country’s own 2011 revolution.

The cycle of violence that has been sweeping the country since November 2012 thus reached its height on and just after August 14, leaving a death toll of over 1,600 people. There are many reports of Islamist-led attacks on Coptic churches, police stations, and anti-Morsi neighborhoods, in addition to some armed pro-Morsi marches and a failed assassination attempt on the interior minister on September 5, which utilized car bombs reminiscent of al-Qaeda tactics.

In addition, violence has swelled in the Sinai, which is rendered almost uncontrollable by favorable mountainous topography, popular support for domestic takfiri radicals and jihadist Islamists (a manifestation of Sinai residents’ resentment of their endless marginalization by the Egyptian state) and cross-border fertilization with Salafist-jihadist groups in the Gaza Strip.

Limits of Violence

Nevertheless, Islamist violence may have reached its logistical and social limitations. First of all, violence on a large scale requires a large number of people willing to execute it and a social base willing to support it. Small pockets of disaffected, radical Islamists are not enough. Furthermore, unlike in Algeria in the 1990s, topographical conditions favorable to armed insurgency do not exist in Egypt. The country also lacks a clearly proviolence social constituency large enough to provide shelter and support for fighters.

Increasing social hostility to Islamism in general and to Islamist-driven violence in particular can isolate the politics of violence and further erode public support. While radical Islamic groups in Egypt waged an armed confrontation with the state in the 1980s and 1990s, it is important to recall that during that period the public remained either sympathetic to the Islamists or opposed to them but not motivated enough to throw its weight behind the government. This time the violent Islamists will face opposition from both the state and society (or at least wide segments of society), as demonstrated by the continuous street battles between Islamists and the Egyptian public in residential areas, popular neighborhoods, public squares, and marketplaces across different cities and towns in the months since November 2012.

The Syrian scenario is also unlikely. It is hard to believe that the Egyptian army can split along sectarian, political, or ideological lines like its counterpart in Syria.

The violence scenario, if it materialized, could arguably involve more low-intensity violence, limited to specific activities and locales. It might take the form of street conflicts between Islamists and anti-Islamist individuals in different urban neighborhoods. Street violence between common people and politicized actors has been a recurrent pattern since the early days of the transitional period. Many residents consider any politicized marches through their neighborhoods to be a transgression into their territory. Friction and clashes have occurred as a result, increasing in recent weeks, and are now focused on Brotherhood marches. Yet such low-intensity violence would likely fall short of anything like the Algerian or Syrian cases.

So both the accommodation scenario and the violence scenario are improbable. This leaves only one other possible outcome—a continuation of the status quo.

The Continued Protest Scenario: Attempting to Delegitimize the Government

Under this third scenario, the Muslim Brotherhood would dismiss any calls for political accommodation and integration and make no concessions. The group would put forward its own narrative of the usurped legitimacy of the rightfully elected president and the unlawful character of the current regime. Declared objectives would include the reinstatement of the elected president, the suspended 2012 constitution, and the dissolved Shura Council, the upper house of the Egyptian parliament. The Brotherhood would try to insist that any negotiated settlement of the crisis take place only once the previously elected institutions were reinstated. The Brotherhood would refuse to participate in the new political process, including the constitutional amendments and the parliamentary and presidential electoral processes. Instead, it would resort to the tactics of mobilization, proselytization, and propaganda that it used during the Mubarak era in defiance of its official exclusion.

The Brotherhood’s main aim would be delegitimizing the new political process, which it would dub “exclusionary,” “nonpluralist,” “undemocratic,” and most importantly “anti-Islamist.” It would organize regular protest activities, such as weekly demonstrations, marches, and rallies, and would engage in propaganda warfare through the media and online networks. This approach might be enough to preserve the unity of the Brotherhood as an organization. It would fit with the zero-sum-game mentality and apocalyptic nature of the group’s recent discourse.

This approach has been the Brotherhood’s preferred option since the start of the current crisis that began with the mass demonstrations against Morsi. It was in essence the group’s approach even before Morsi’s overthrow. The headstrong Brotherhood refused to make any concessions to the opposition (most importantly, the call for new presidential elections), knowing that its intransigence in the face of the mounting public anger would invite either a civil war or a military coup. The Brotherhood successfully employed multiple discourses to counter this resistance. Religious and ideological rhetoric was used to appease the grassroots and strengthen the ideological identity and solidarity of the group. At the same time, references to democracy, political legitimacy, and peaceful anti-coup struggle were aimed at winning the hearts of the non-Islamist potential sympathizers within Egypt and internationally.

The Brotherhood considers this option to be justified in light of the exclusionary measures taken by the caretaker government and the state security institutions. It also calculates that this option has some chance of success in terms of strengthening its hand over time. First, despite the regime crackdown—which has mostly targeted the first and second tiers of the organization’s leadership—the logistics of Brotherhood operation (particularly the centralization of decisionmaking and the decentralization of decision implementation and execution) allow room for the delegation of responsibilities to the local administrative units at the middle and lower echelons of the organization in extraordinary situations like this one.

Second, and more substantively, the Brotherhood knows that it is too big and too visible to be ignored. Its social constituencies are a force to be reckoned with, and their exclusion would be extremely costly and for all practical purposes impossible. Any new democratic politics in Egypt must accommodate Islamists (provided, of course, that the Islamist actors are rational enough to reach an understanding).

Additionally, the Brotherhood reasons that destabilizing the country as long as possible might shift the balance of power in its favor. The group’s line of thought is clear-cut: as the crisis situation is drawn out, things might change. For example, the extended crisis might cultivate more favorable public opinion toward the Brotherhood. People might become increasingly discontent with the way the regime runs things, and they might become sympathetic toward the mass casualties inflicted on Islamists by the regime. In addition, changing regional and international contexts might lead to a push for the ruling Egyptian government to accommodate the Brotherhood.

Furthermore, fractures within the anti-Morsi camp over the “democratic” credentials of the caretaker government—on questions of economy, human rights, constitutional amendments, and the approach to the “Islamist threat”—might further weaken the current regime. Noticeably, rifts between pro-change democratic forces and old-regime authoritarian forces within the interim government are becoming increasingly apparent.

Transitional Period Blunders

The current regime has exhibited some managerial shortcomings during the transitional period since Morsi’s ouster. It has made three major blunders, and these missteps could not have been more beneficial to the Muslim Brotherhood.

First, the caretaker government failed to make a serious break with the prerevolutionary Mubarak era. It did not deliver a clear-cut message that the revolution that ousted Morsi is a continuation of the January 25, 2011, revolution that overthrew Mubarak and not a negation of it. Recurrent repressive and unlawful behavior by security forces in their confrontation with the Brotherhood, while accepted by many people eager to get rid of the Islamist threat as fast as possible, was also opposed by few but outspoken actors, including staunch anti-Brotherhood politicians, journalists, and human rights activists. Furthermore, there is a flagrant, provocative pro-Mubarak bias prevalent in much of the public and private media, which is now occupied by figures associated with the old Mubarak regime (better known in Egyptian political parlance as floul). This has raised concerns among many people who detested Mubarakism as much as they opposed the Brotherhood regime.

As a result, when the Brotherhood claims that Morsi’s overthrow was a step in a master plan of reconsolidating the Mubarak regime, it might sound reasonable to many people. At the very least, Egyptians might believe that what is happening does not bode well for their expectations for the country’s democratic transition.

Second, the interim government laid out a road map for Egypt’s democratic transition that has proved quite controversial. Many people have qualms with the sequence of the process. The road map calls for holding presidential elections at the commencement of the transition process rather than at its beginning, though the merits of such a move are debatable. It certainly did not answer the demand of the anti-Morsi uprising for early presidential elections. In addition, the constitutional amendment process and the far-from-democratic content of some of the amendments introduced by the interim government were unsatisfactory in the eyes of many who took to the streets to overthrow Morsi and his government.

Third, the caretaker regime arguably misstepped in managing relations with the Islamists. There is debate about whether the use of violence in dispersing the Brotherhood sit-ins in Rabaa and al-Nahda Square was necessary (or, for that matter, whether the dispersal itself was necessary). Many wonder whether the violent dispersal of the sit-ins really inflicted the most “minimal costs” possible given the well-known incompetency and brutality of the Egyptian police force. Some people argue that, for all the negative consequences of the sit-ins, ignoring the demonstrations while expediting the political road map would have been a better option than violent dispersal (or at least it would have been the lesser of the two evils). The regime’s violence gave the Brotherhood the gifts it hoped for: the ability to portray itself as a martyr and a full-scale bloody confrontation that could preserve the unity of the group, earn it some domestic empathy, and further destabilize the country.

The fierce anti-Islamist propaganda in the state and private media, the mass arrests of Brotherhood figures, and the closure of Islamist media channels helped mobilize all Islamists and even much of the conservative religious population around the Brotherhood and Morsi’s cause. The vast majority of Islamists would have identified with this cause no matter what had happened, thanks to the influence of ideology and identity, but other conservative and religious individuals who do not necessarily identify with the organizations of political Islam in general could have been neutralized through a more reasonable, softer media discourse. But such a discourse did not materialize. The first rule of successful political warfare is to isolate your enemy and not to furnish him with more supporters who otherwise could have been neutralized.

The persistence of difficulties that plagued Morsi’s regime may also cause trouble for the interim government and benefit the Brotherhood. It is well-known that Egypt’s poor economy, declining state performance (including its nearly defunct public services), and increasingly unruly and disobedient society had negative repercussions for Morsi’s regime. They generated public anger against the regime’s incompetence. Yet now, the Brotherhood believes it can turn these elements of Egyptian life back in its favor. The economy is not likely to improve in the short or medium term, thanks to its structural crises. Political instability is also wreaking havoc. The regime benefits from foreign cash pouring in from Gulf countries that might provide it with some leeway, but not for that long. Moreover, Egyptian society will not become easier to govern without the introduction of democratic changes in state-society relations and reforms in state institutions. In all likelihood, such reforms will not be undertaken given the current balance of power in the regime. The social and political crises are therefore likely to continue. This time, however, it will be the caretaker government, and the old state institution at its core, that pays for them.

Odds of Success

The Brotherhood’s odds under the continued protest scenario are not terrible. In fact, the group can already claim that it has made headway through the troubled waters of the last month. The organization is arguably (at least in the minds of some Brotherhood activists) in a much better tactical position than when protests against Morsi began or even than when he was ousted, when public sympathy for Morsi’s cause was at its lowest and the faith in the interim regime’s transitional road map was at its zenith. The biggest problem with this scenario is its extremely risky nature. The pursuit of this option would risk losing the political gains the Brotherhood has made since Mubarak’s fall: official recognition, political participation, and power sharing. Such gains could be partially sustained if the accommodation scenario were to be embraced.

The bet the Brotherhood would be making with the continued protest scenario is that it can achieve longer-term gains, such as exhausting the transitional regime until it surrenders to the Brotherhood’s conditions, if it accepts certain near-term tactical forfeits. However, a complete defeat on the part of the military and the state is likely impossible as well. Ironically, the continued protest scenario in the long run may morph into a modified version of the accommodation option as the maximum that the Brotherhood can gain given the current balance of power.

Predicting the Brotherhood’s Path

It is hard to forecast the Brotherhood’s future decisions right now given the roiling uncertainties of Egypt’s current situation. The real strategic choice for the Muslim Brotherhood is between a scenario of accommodation and one of continued protest. The violence scenario is not an exclusive one; the country could descend into violence even as the Brotherhood pursues either of the two other scenarios. The continued protest option is the de facto scenario and will likely remain so for some time.

Each of the three scenarios has its positives, negatives, and limitations. Whether the Brotherhood will stay the course or adopt other options, particularly the accommodation scenario, depends on several factors. The changing domestic political and economic conditions, the caretaker regime’s ability to expedite political processes in a democratic and inclusive way alongside security operations, the success of the transitional road map, and the evolving political crisis in the country will all affect the outcome. So too will the ability of the Brotherhood to embark on the comprehensive ideological, doctrinal, and organizational transformations necessary for any democratic politics that can earn the trust of the people, heal the wounds of the previous period, and contribute to the creation of a new democratic state in Egypt.

The scope of such reforms is far beyond the capacity of the Muslim Brotherhood movement to accept given its current ideology, identity, mandate, leaders, and organization. If these reforms are put into action, the door will be open for a “post-Brotherhood” new Islamist political environment or even post-Islamist environment altogether. This is a development that the Brotherhood unequivocally rejects, and therein lies the key problem.

Correction: An earlier version of this article made reference to 1,000 Brotherhood leaders. It has been corrected to members.

 

Comments (16)

 
 
  • Paul Ballard
    1 Recommend
     
    This article seems itself to be written from a biased and sectarian perspective. It gives few factual indicators of the Muslim Brotherhood's policies in government. It also seems to toe the party line of the so-called "sectarian liberals" in Egyptian politics. Reading of Egyptian press in the months leading up to the military coup show in fact that Morsi's government reached out to other parties, but the latter refused to dialog with them. So, would it not be more accurate to say that a lack of ability compromise in the established constitutional framework caused the coup? On the issue of pragmatism and moderation of the Muslim Brotherhood, I would direct you to Rutherford's "Egypt After Mubarak" (2008) which gives a very full substantive analysis of Muslim Brotherhood political thinking and its evolution since the 1990s. Contrary to what you say, it portrays them as both a pragmatic as well as a moderate Islamic group - wanting to work in a pluralistic political context in Egypt. I would agree it is to be hoped that the Muslim Brotherhood is not forced into the path of violence by being repressed by the current military dictatorship to go underground. More to the point, however, is : Why is it that so many educated apparently liberal Egyptians seem to want to side with the "deep state" of the military dictatorship established by Mubarak? What happened July 3 was the return to power of that "deep state" . That is the military elite, the security services, the police and the government bureaucracy - all of which have long established inter-connections. They have very powerful vested interests in preserving the status quo. Not to mention that the military essentially owns and runs as much as 40% of the Egyptian economy. It would help if your analysis had put the matter of the Muslim Brotherhood in that context. Do you really believe that any political party that came to power in 2011 could have immediately pushed the "deep state" forces aside? One only has to look at the Chilean experience with former dictator Pinochet and his top military brass to realize that was practically impossible. This speaks rather for all Egyptian political parties - outside the "deep state" - working closely together to defeat it. Instead, it seems the "deep state" very cleverly played off different groups against each other to stay in power. I suggest you revise substantially your analysis.
     
     
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    • G D S replies...
      you start by critiquing the article for not presenting the MB government's policy .. well .. that is because they didn't have one! You mention reading the Egyptian press prior to what you refer to as 'coup' which by the way it was not .. but back to the press .. there was no press freedom, you tend to judge by your norms and standards ... also when you draw a parallel to Chile .. you ignore the fact that each country, culture, people etc have their own unique background history, circumstances, and so many variables that do not match and which contribute to the psyche of each people ... and consequently their behaviour and attitude towards things... for example Egyptians are quite comfortable in fact are in love with their army because it is composed of their own sons, fathers, brothers, cousins and husbands ... they do not have the kind of animosity that other nations may have experienced ...
       
       
  • maxdaddy
    "...[T]he caretaker government failed to make a serious break with the prerevolutionary Mubarak era. It did not deliver a clear-cut message that the revolution that ousted Morsi is a continuation of the January 25, 2011, revolution that overthrew Mubarak and not a negation of it." There is a really good and simple reason for this: there has been no "revolution" in Egypt. The 2011 "revolution" was itself just a coup where Mubarak was the deep state's sacrificial lamb since too costly to maintain in power. Likewise was Morsi's deposition just another internal coup, all the convenient window dressing of ElBaradei, the Salafists, the increasingly troubling Tamarod youth, etc., aside. There can be no democracy in a society dancing to the tune of its generals, who own a good chunk of it besides, with the rest held by their corrupt old-regime business-sector confederates. Only when this endlessly metastasized deep state is swept aside will democracy in Egypt even be possible.
     
     
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    • TheTrue2
      outlawing the Brotherhood once again will soften the inertia to social change at the family unit level in the society. I say this because one way to neutralize the Brotherhood factions that stand for moderation and believe in trying to connect tradition with modernism using their version of the Islamic Model is by passing laws that defend women rights so that the paternal family domination of the society can be reform. This is necessary for a participative democracy to work in Egypt. The Sinai peninsula terrorist activities in all likelihood will spill into the main cities of Egypt now. The major cities and poor neighborhoods are prime landscape to wage urban warfare. A strong military response will be necessary with our help to neutralize these cells.
       
       
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      • chillfactor
        I think the brotherhoods best option is to target the military, judiciary, and police leadership for assassination. This would not have to involve large scale military activities while inflicting the maximum amount of disruption with a minimum of effort
         
         
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        • Borderline
          It is interesting that everyone talks about the Islamic Brotherhood and none about the Egyptian Army. Egyptian Army is not any different from Hussein Iraq army (RIP) or Assad murderous army, the three are the same. These despotic organizations will end in the same manner as Iraq army did. Assad rather destroyed the country than to give up power. A large majority of Egyptians just handed the power back to the Generals. I wonder how they will get it back. There is no way no how, this is it for Egypt democracy. What a blunder!
           
           
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          • Egyptian patriotic
            Since Morcy was ousted the new authorities has killed more than 1,000 Muslim brother members !!!! My personal advise to the writer, too much watching action movie could seriously harm your brain . the official dead bodies received at the Morg are around 350 to 400 dead, unless the writer has the rest of 600 dead bodies at home or tell us from which sources this hilarious number come from we will have to consider the reality of a maximum of 400 dead . The writer is mentioning the number of dead people also comments that since Morsy was ousted the Muslim brothers organized several demonstrations aiming to bring him back but he forgot to tell us that most of those demonstrations were armed and all of those demonstrations with no exceptiobs were linked to violence, burning fire, crashing cars, attacking people in the streets from opposit opinion, etc... he forgot to tell us as well that the main reason of number of dead from Muslim brothers is because they open fire guns against police authority which force the police to fire back. The writer is telling us about 1000 dead from Muslim brother which turns to be a lie against correct number around 400 and he forgot to tell us that police mem died by Muslim brother group since Morcy ousted untill today are 1150 police men, officially registered and counted, not to mention the military solders numbers . Last thing is their name is criminal brother group not Muslim brother group.
             
             
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            • gagosim
              The events have shown that the real threat to democracy in Egypt is not the MB, but the army and the secular elites. I don't think MB is less democratic than for example tamarod. It looks like they are at least equally noninclusive, undemocratic. But we prefer tamarod because they look and speak like us.
               
               
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              • Mark Villarino
                MB learned a lesson that no way they can contribute to any militray driven democratic state in Egypt and violence scenario is only choice !!
                 
                 
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                • Paul Ballard
                  As I commented before on a previous article by Dr al-Sharif, it seems he has a quite different interpretation of the Muslim Brotherhood from that in the work of other prominent scholars who have researched the topic. Notably Rutherford in "Egypt after Mubarak" and Asef Bayat in "Politics of Everyday Life". Both of these works - written in 2008-10 - point to a major ideological redirection of the Muslim Brotherhood from the mid- late- 1990s onwards. They quote Muslim Brotherhood leaders indicting clearly the desire to work in context of a pluralistic multi-sectarian state. This is not the "Pax islamica" referred to above. Nor is it aimed at imposing God's (ie., presumably Allah's ?) sovereignty over popular sovereignty - as stated by Dr al-Sharif. Since the conclusions drawn in this article appear not to be based upon any empirical research, whereas the work of Rutherford and Bayat was based on many years of such research, one is led to wonder why Dr al-Sharif can conclude as he does. This is troubling. It would seem that perhaps Dr al-Sharif is actively seeking to convince Americans of the justification of the military coup of July 3, and now the outlawing of the Muslim Brotherhood. Surely the main issue now is not whether the Muslim Brotherhood is or is not democratic. It is whether the "deep state" of Egypt can ever soon be induced to give up the authoritarian power they have wielded for over forty years? It is also worth asking : why is it that the so-called "secular" and "liberal" parties that refused to work with the constitutionally elected government - led by Pres. Morsi - but sought for many months to mount the coup that overthrew him pursued such a path? Isn't it the case that this action has in fact back-fired on them? This because all constitutional democracy in Egypt has now been abolished replaced by a military dictatorship with no end in sight? In good part due to decades of corruption and economic mismanagement by the Egyptian military, Egypt is now one of the poorest nations in the world. it is largely rural - 65% of its population lives in rural areas. Not surprisingly, this less educated, less modern rural population largely voted for the Muslim Brotherhood in the elections in 2011-12. So, much has to change before Egypt can aspire to be a modern secular democracy. Rather than kill the party that represents the majority of Egyptians now, wouldn't it be better to pragmatically help build the long-term future so it is better?
                   
                   
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                  • Prof Dr. Aliaa Rafea
                    One of the most excellent analysis of the situation in Egypt.
                     
                     
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                    • Luiz
                      It is a brilliant text and sure the Brotherhood has to change, but the so-called Liberals in Egypt should also look at the mirror. I lived among Egyptian middle-class Liberals for two years and they are not quite committed to democracy. Their insistence in rejecting the Brotherhood's very Egyptian character (by calling them "foreign" and "un-Egyptian"), the pro-military mindset of most of them, their contempt for their own people and fear of their choices in the ballot is no secret to anyone who has lived in Egypt in 2011 and 2012.
                      Liberals in Egypt still have to learn a basic principle of democracy: to accept being ruled by legitimate winners one dislikes and mistrusts. The author's claim that Egyptians as a whole desire a genuinely democratic system must be taken with a grain of salt.
                      As for the Brotherhood being pragmatic but not moderate, the Western diplomats the author calls naive - without using the word - were always aware of that. They know - and Egyptian Liberals don't - that this is the reality of several mass political movements in transitional democracies; Egypt is no special case. In several countries that underwent transitions to democracy since the 1980s (Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, etc.) mainstream politics came to be dominated more or less by political movements not quite committed at the grassroots level to democratic principles. But in these countries there was - in opposition to Egypt - a readiness from all sides of mainstream politics, winners and losers, to a minimum of tolerance and compromise, a feature still to see in Egypt not only from the Islamist side but also from the so-called Liberals, currently too busy with their hysterical cheerleading of the military.
                       
                       
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                      • Ummah citizen
                        You seem unaware that the Muslim Brotherhood represent today the position of around 30% of the Egyptian electorate based on Pew Research Center studies and 2012 election results. However he would likely have been supported by another 25% of Islamic-minded people. These are committed Muslims who are trying to seek Allah's approval. A toddler starting to walk is given many chances to find its feet and walk properly. The carpet was pulled out from the MB's feet - they were not given a chance to be voted out of power. You are talking about an option of "post-Brotherhood' .. are you star-gazing? What is your own position? Consider for yourself "If any fail to judge by what Allah has revealed they are no better than zalimun ... kafirun ... fasiqun." Al-Qur'an 5: 44, 45, 47. In Islamic law Sisi just committed high treason against his Commander Morsi who was elected Islamically by the citizens. You seem to accept Sisi's rebellion as legitimate. How is that possible?
                         
                         
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                        • Ameria
                          The article confuses the future of the MB with the future of democracy in Egypt. In fact many democracies have rules forbidding antidemocratic parties. The effect is usually that some "light" version of them pops up instead.

                          So in my view the question of whether Sisi will allow a democratic system where people have real choice should be seen separate from the future of the MB. Even the very restricted choice that we see in Iran would be progress after the lack of choice under Mubarak.
                           
                           
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                          • Michael Xender
                            1 Recommend
                             
                            What a bunch of *&/# is this. Blame the victim pretty much. The MB was the victim under Mubarak an before. It was the victim when Morsi was at least officially President of Egypt. MB HQ´s were burnt down while the police looked the other way. MB members were killed and tortured by thugs even before the counterrevolution. And it is the victim after the coup.
                             
                             
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                            • G D S replies...
                              Michael Xender, you really should read up on the history before sympathizing with a terrorist MB cult that, since 1928 had no allegiance to the country and was responsible for assassinations, attempted assassinations, the 1951 great Cairo fire, just to mention a few of their legacy ...
                               
                               

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