Maria Kolomychenko
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Kremlin Struggles to Solve a VPN Problem of Its Own Making
With its scattershot approach to enforcing internet censorship, the Russian regime risks losing a battle against the many Russians who have learned to evade online restrictions.
Over the last decade, the Russian authorities have inadvertently carried out one of the world’s most successful digital literacy campaigns: teaching tens of millions of people how to use virtual private networks (VPNs) to circumvent internet restrictions. According to a survey by the independent polling company Russian Field in April 2026, over 50 percent of Russians aged eighteen to forty-five admit to using VPNs, and 74 percent of all Russians know of their existence. In March 2026 alone, Russians downloaded VPNs over 9 million times.
Pro-Kremlin figures concede that VPNs are widely understood, even by sections of society that traditionally struggle with the internet. Which VPNs work best has become a common topic of small talk.
For many years, Russian officials paid little attention to how growing internet censorship had fostered greater awareness of ways to circumvent restrictions. It was only in 2026 that they realized the sophisticated system they had built at a cost of billions of rubles was ineffective because everyone could access VPNs on their smartphones. While the regime is now trying to address this self-inflicted problem, it’s unlikely to have much success.
When the authorities began imposing systematic online censorship in 2012, they assumed only a handful of people would be determined enough to evade restrictions, so it was not worth an effort to try to stop them. For a while, this was true. But it changed when Russia launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the regime began limiting access to genuinely popular online platforms like Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube.
As a result, VPNs stopped being a niche tool and became a mass consumer product. Even the less tech-savvy are now able to install VPNs, change their connection protocols, buy subscriptions, and use channels on the messaging app Telegram to find out how to get around restrictions. As the authorities block more and more sites, many users have made it a habit to switch on a VPN before opening the internet.
In other words, the regime has conducted nothing less than a wholesale campaign to popularize VPNs. The best indicator of its success is that Instagram and YouTube—which have been blocked for years—are still among the most popular internet sites in Russia.
When the Kremlin began to understand just how widespread the use of VPNs was at the start of 2023, its response was patchy. Online watchdog and censor Roskomnadzor periodically blocked the websites and IP addresses of VPN services, got them deleted from the App Store, and even designated one (HideMyName) as a “foreign agent.”
One outcome of this approach was that many popular foreign VPNs (like Windscribe and Cloudflare WARP), which were designed to ensure privacy rather than evade censorship, stopped working reliably. But it also prompted the development of new VPNs specifically designed to get around Russian internet restrictions.
Many of these VPNs were developed by IT specialists who had emigrated from Russia. After each new attempt to block them, updates are usually quickly released.
The regime appeared to go on the offensive in 2025. Roskomnadzor was tasked with developing signatures to filter VPN traffic and with achieving 92 percent blocking effectiveness by 2030. This sort of vague goal is standard bureaucratic procedure, allowing agencies to claim that funds were spent on their intended purpose, regardless of actual results. And the funds committed were substantial: several billion rubles per year.
Nevertheless, even such significant investments have been unable to deliver victory for the Kremlin. Technology used by Roskomnadzor is theoretically able to identify VPN connections by protocol signatures, IP address, geolocation discrepancies, and other parameters. But it has no way of dealing with modern protocols like VLESS (Very Lightweight Encryption Security Stream) that are designed to evade censorship and disguise their traffic as regular HTTPS connections. What’s more, Roskomnadzor’s existing filtration capabilities are reportedly stretched to their limits.
Roskomnadzor is reportedly planning to use AI in its battle with VPNs. But the IT community is not standing still either: VLESS, for example, was recently configured with the XTLS and REALITY protocols, making it even harder for Roskomnadzor’s filters to identify.
The Russian authorities are not blind to the limitations of their technical capabilities, and as a result, they have been increasingly turning to administrative measures. In mid-2025, Russia banned advertisements for VPN services, and VPN use was made an aggravating circumstance for some crimes.
After Russia’s decision to slow the messaging app Telegram at the start of 2026 triggered yet more interest in VPNs, officials came up with more anti-VPN ideas. Mobile operators were ordered to disable Apple ID payments (a popular way to pay for VPNs), and Russian companies were forced to limit access to their sites for users connected via VPNs. There was also a proposal to introduce a fee on the “foreign traffic” generated by users with a VPN, and mobile operators were made to sign a pledge not to expand communication links with Europe. Finally, officials are considering fines for VPN users.
This sort of scattershot approach is a sure sign the Kremlin is flailing for a solution—and risks losing the battle against VPNs. The problem is that it was the regime itself that introduced Russians to VPNs. In other words, Roskomnadzor is not fighting Kremlin critics or Western services: It’s up against the internet habits of tens of millions of Russians.
Ultimately, neither side is likely to achieve a clear-cut victory. In the coming months, the VPN battle looks set to turn into a war of attrition, with Roskomnadzor improving its censorship tools while developers react by adapting VPNs to get around them. However, the urgency of the struggle will likely fade, particularly once the Kremlin’s priorities shift.
About the Author
Special correspondent for The Bell
- Who Is Responsible for the Demise of the Russian Internet?Commentary
- Why Did Messaging App Telegram Fall From Grace in Russia?Commentary
Maria Kolomychenko
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
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